During a presentation at the annual Credit Suisse technology conference, Swan offered up some additional details, as transcribed by WCCFTech. One of the most interesting things he had to say was how Intel stop being hyper-focused on having a 90 percent share of the total semiconductor market. More than that, Swan wants to "destroy" that kind of thinking.
"We think about having 30 percent share in a $230 [silicon] TAM [total addressable market] that we think is going to grow to $300 billion [silicon] TAM over the next 4 years, and frankly, I'm trying to destroy the thinking about having 90 percent share inside our company because, I think it limits our thinking, I think we miss technology transitions," Swan said.
Bear in mind that he's not talking strictly about CPUs, but the whole kit and kaboodle—CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and so forth. When looking at the semiconductor market as a whole, it's a tremendously large market, and being able to snag nearly a third of it would be very lucrative.
"So, we're looking at a company with roughly 30 percent share in a $288 silicon TAM, not CPU TAM, but silicon TAM. We look at the investments we've been making over the last several years in these kind of key technology inflections: 5G At autonomous, acquisitions, including Altera, that we think is more and more relevant both in the cloud but also AI... our expectations are that we're going to gain our fair share at that much larger TAM by Investing in these key technology inflections," Swan added.
Intel Talks 10nm Delays, 7nm CPUs In Late 2021
For one, Swan says the demand for its CPUs grew faster than expected—the company anticipated a 10 percent growth rate, but saw a 21 percent growth rate. Secondly, Intel decided to build all of its smartphone modems in house, which ate up capacity. And lastly, Intel "slipped on bringing our 10nm to life and when that happens, you build more and more performance into your last generation." For Intel, that meant optimizing its 14nm node.
"So those three—growing much faster than we thought, bringing modems inside and delaying 10nm resulted in a position where we didn’t have flexible capacity," Intel said.
Nevertheless, Intel believes it has things sorted out, in terms of its nodes. 10nm silicon will come, and after that, Swan says Intel's first 7nm processors will ship in the fourth quarter of 2021. That seemingly puts Intel well behind AMD, though Swan says Intel's 7nm node is equivalent to the competition's 3nm node.
Interesting stuff, and we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. In the meantime, hit the link the Via field to read more of Swan's comments.